dimarts, 10 de maig del 2016

09/05/2016. Política. A Inés Arrimadas se li escapa el motiu de fons per què Espanya rebutja la independència. Ha destapat el motiu real que s’amaga darrere la reticència espanyola tan contundent a permetre un plebiscit a Catalunya. Una hipotètica independència al Principat, podria dur a una desintegració d’Espanya si això porta a celebrar un “referèndum de secessió cada sis mesos a una part del país diferent”.

Benvolguts,

Us presentem un article del directe.cat sobre la reticència espanyola tan contundent a permetre un plebiscit a Catalunya i la relliscada de l’Arrimadas. L’article comenta un article/reportatge anomenat The Catalan Exit plan, que afegim a continuació del primer.

Un tast interessant del The Catalan Exit plan, explicant la por de Madrid a la independència de Catalunya amb la possibilitat que molts altres territoris de mentalitat independent se sentirien encoratjats si Catalunya s’independitza i es converteix en la República Catalana:
Madrid is determined to keep the kingdom united, fearful also that a Catalan split would encourage the Basques, Galicians, Valencians and other independent-minded regions to go it alone.

 Mentides a dojo. L’Arrimadas sembla del PPSOE:
Arrimadas, of Ciudadanos, says Brussels has made it abundantly clear that any region of an EU member country that chooses independence will automatically become a third country and have to re-apply for membership — “and we know that there are countries that take 10 to 15 years to get membership.” “We don’t want to leave the European Union for even five minutes,” she told POLITICO by phone from Barcelona, citing the damage it would do to the Catalan economy, the frustration it would cause ordinary people, and how unjustified the whole independence push is given the high level of autonomy Catalonia already has in areas such as education, health and security.

I per que es vegi que som uns fatxendes en Puigdemont explica:
The way Puigdemont sees it, once Catalan breaks with EU member Spain, it will exit the EU by one door and come right back in through another because Brussels will be desperate to hold onto an economically powerful region at the heart of Europe’s culture and traditions.

Bé, llegim l’article en català I almenys els paràgrafs intensificats de l’original en anglès:


9 DE MAIG DE 2016 11:35 H
El prestigiós setmanari Politico publica un extens reportatge sobre el Procés on nega que Catalunya sigui un afer intern
Inés Arrimadas ha destapat el motiu real que s’amaga darrere la reticència espanyola tan contundent a permetre un plebiscit a Catalunya que pugui desembocar en la plena sobirania. La cap de l’oposició al Parlament ha dit en una entrevista que una hipotètica independència al Principat, podria dur a una desintegració d’Espanya si això porta a celebrar un “referèndum de secessió cada sis mesos a una part del país diferent”. Ni Arrimadas ni el conjunt de l’unionisme solen mencionar la por al temut efecte dòmino que acabi amb l’Estat per rebutjar el procés català, però a la dirigent de Ciudadanos se li ha escapat i no a un mitjà qualsevol. 

"Por a que la independència catalana encoratgi els bascos, gallecs, valencians i altres"

Arrimadas ha fet aquestes declaracions a l’edició europea de Politico, un dels setmanaris sobre política més influents als Estats Units i també a la Unió Europea i amb més reputació per la seva imparcialitat. La publicació ha dedicat al Procés un extens reportatge avui que ha ocupat el principal lloc en portada del web durant hores aquest matí, on seguint la línia d’Arrimadas, afirma que “Madrid està decidida a  mantenir el regne unit, per por a que la separació de Catalunya encoratgi els bascos, gallecs, valencians i altres regions amb mentalitat independentista a anar per lliure”.

Puigdemont diu que la UE s'esforçarà a mantenir Catalunya, tal com ho ha fet amb el Regne Unit

El reportatge, que només per la seva extensió i el setmanari on s’ha publicat ja es pot considerar un èxit per la internacionalització del Procés, inclou una entrevista al president de la Generalitat, on diu: “Ja no depenem d’ells [l’Estat], les eleccions espanyoles no són un factor decisiu en el procés d’independència català”. A més, Puigdemont ha afirmat que Catalunya ja està “emancipada” i que la UE estarà “desesperada” per mantenir el Principat dins la UE en cas d’independència: “No veig cap motiu pel qual Europa no hauria de fer el mateix esforç que està fent ara per a convèncer el Regne Unit a mantenir-se a la UE”. Mentrestant, la cap de l’oposició al Parlament diu que en quedaria fora i podria tardar fins a 10-15 anys a tornar-hi.

Politico contradiu les institucions de la UE i afirma que el Procés no és un afer intern

El text, que també inclou declaracions de Miquel Iceta, es refereix a Catalunya com a “bressol de la cultura mediterrània” i contradiu les tradicionals declaracions d’alts càrrecs d’Els 28 que parlen del conflicte territorial que planteja Barcelona com un “afer intern”: “Si el procés és irreversible o només una estratagema per negociar més autonomia sobre Madrid, és una qüestió existencial per Espanya i d’importància estratègica vital per la Unió Europea”. En aquest sentit, recull declaracions del professor d’ESADE José Areilza, que creu que fins ara les reivindicacions catalanes han acceptat només un millor tracte, però “no estic segur aquest cop”.




NOTÍCIES RELACIONADES



2. Catalan exit plan
In the past, moderates have dominated Barcelona’s testy relations with Madrid. This time, it could escalate.
By  
 and 

5/9/16, 5:30 AM CET
Catalan president Carles Puigdemont at the Generalitat palace in Barcelona | Josep Lago/AFP via Getty Images

In the mind of Carles Puigdemont, Catalonia is already floating free from the rest of Spain.
The president of the Generalitat regional government came to power in January promising independence in 18 months, but says Catalonia is already “emancipated” from the tortuous political process that has deprived Spain of a government since inconclusive elections in December. On June 26, Spain will hold the first repeat elections in its modern democratic history.
“We don’t depend on them any more. The Spanish elections aren’t a decisive factor in the Catalan independence process,” the 53-year-old Catalan president told POLITICO in an interview.
Whether this process is irreversible, or just a ruse to negotiate more autonomy from Madrid, is an existential question for Spain and of vital strategic importance to the European Union: a cradle of Mediterranean culture, Catalonia’s 7.5 million people make up a sixth of the Spanish population and nearly a fifth of Spain’s economic output.

“We aren’t waiting any more. We are taking decisions” — Carles Puigdemont

Madrid is determined to keep the kingdom united, fearful also that a Catalan split would encourage the Basques, Galicians, Valencians and other independent-minded regions to go it alone.

Encouraged by Mariano Rajoy’s outgoing government, the Constitutional Court invalidated a 2014 referendum in which 80 percent of ballots cast favored independence, though turnout was very low as the main pro-unity parties boycotted the vote. In last September’s high-turnout Catalan election, 48 percent of votes, but an absolute majority of seats, went to secessionist parties, including Puigdemont’s center-right Convergencia.

From the day he took power after three months of coalition wrangling, Puigdemont said he has made it clear to Spain’s four biggest parties — now acting prime minister Rajoy’s conservative Popular Party, Pedro Sánchez’s Socialists, Pablo Iglesias’ far-left Podemos and Albert Rivera’s centrist Ciudadanos — that Catalonia has already embarked on its own separatist path.
“We aren’t waiting any more. We are taking decisions,” said the former journalist and ex-mayor of Girona.

Adéu to Europe?
The 18-month countdown that Puigdemont declared in January will culminate in elections for a constitutional assembly “for a future Catalan republic” where Spain’s King Felipe will no longer reign, but where the Spanish language and culture, and many residents who originate from elsewhere in the peninsula, will thrive alongside the Catalan speakers, he said.
Not, however, if the majority Spanish political forces opposed to independence can help it, including the Popular Party, the Socialists and Ciudadanos, the business-friendly party founded in Barcelona by Catalan-born Rivera a decade ago.

Albert Rivera, leader of Ciudadanos and Spanish presidential candidate in the June 26 general election, with Inés Arrimadas, the party’s leader in Catalonia | Pablo Blazquez Dominguez/Getty Images

Inés Arrimadas, Ciudadanos’ 34-year-old leader in the Catalan parliament, worries it could lead to the disintegration of Spain if there is “a breakaway referendum every six months regarding a different part of the country.”

Born far away in Andalusia’s Jerez de la Frontera, she took an interest in Catalonia as a girl, picking up a Catalan dictionary when she was 10 and moving there nearly a decade ago. Identifying herself as “Catalan, Andalusian, Spanish and European,” she singles out European Union membership as the biggest flaw in the nationalists’ argument.

“We don’t want to leave the
European Union for even five
minutes” — Inés Arrimadas,
Ciudadanos

The way Puigdemont sees it, once Catalan breaks with EU member Spain, it will exit the EU by one door and come right back in through another because Brussels will be desperate to hold onto an economically powerful region at the heart of Europe’s culture and traditions.

“I see no reason why Europe shouldn’t make the same effort it is now making to convince the U.K. to remain in Europe,” said the president, contrasting the EU vocation of Catalonia’s “7.5 million European citizens” with Britain’s lack of enthusiasm. Dismissing the destabilizing impact of a Spanish breakup, he says the bloc is resilient: “The EU has an iron ill-health.”
The European Commission appears keen to remain above the fray. Puigdemont spoke to POLITICO during a visit to Belgium last week when he met the premier of the Flanders region — a nationalist who shares Convergencia’s separatist vision — but not Jean-Claude Juncker, whose spokesperson said there was no room in the diary of the Commission chief, nor any other commissioner.

Miquel Iceta, leader in Catalonia of Sánchez’s Socialists, said Puidgemont’s difficulties getting face-time with EU leaders was “a clear sign that nobody in Europe is going to favor a change of frontiers, especially one carried out unilaterally and illegally.”

Arrimadas, of Ciudadanos, says Brussels has made it abundantly clear that any region of an EU member country that chooses independence will automatically become a third country and have to re-apply for membership — “and we know that there are countries that take 10 to 15 years to get membership.”

“We don’t want to leave the European Union for even five minutes,” she told POLITICO by phone from Barcelona, citing the damage it would do to the Catalan economy, the frustration it would cause ordinary people, and how unjustified the whole independence push is given the high level of autonomy Catalonia already has in areas such as education, health and security.

Hardliners
Puigdemont advises against pre-empting how European countries will react “once Catalonia has taken a democratic decision,” adding that he trusts “in the democratic maturity of the Spanish people, who are today hugely more mature than their own political class.”

The coalition wrangling in Madrid wasn’t very edifying, but it was complicated by the Catalan question. The PP, Socialists and Ciudadanos all reject the challenge to national unity, which was one of the main factors that prevented Socialist Sánchez — who came second in December — from getting the support he needed from Podemos’ Iglesias, who said in February: “It’s necessary to have a referendum in Catalonia.”

Catalonia has been “the elephant in the room” in the Spanish coalition talks, Raül Romeva, the region’s foreign affairs chief, told POLITICO in an interview last month.

Rajoy’s conservatives have traditionally taken the hardest line. Puigdemont blames the PP’s influence for a 2010 constitutional court ruling that undermined Catalonia’s hard-won statute of autonomy, which the region lost under the dictator Francisco Franco, recovered when democracy was restored, and renewed in a 2006 referendum.

Former Catalan President Artur Mas stepped down in January to facilitate a deal with radical-left independentists CUP. The image shows Mas and successor Puigdemont as the latter takes office on January 12 | David Ramos/Getty Images

According to Puigdemont, that was the breaking point for moderate forces like Convergencia, which were previously willing to work with Madrid on more autonomy, rather than a divorce. “Thank you, constitutional court, it all started with you,” he said.

The Socialists and Ciudadanos promise to win back the Catalans by restoring dialogue if they lead or take part in a new Spanish government after June’s elections. Opinion polls currently put the PP in the lead but without their own majority again, meaning more months of coalition negotiations are likely to ensue.

“In the end, it was always the moderates who decided the outcome. I’m not sure about this time” — José Areilza, law professor

This worries Iceta of the Socialists. Every day that passes without clear advances for Puigdemont’s agenda, more Catalans will realize the separatist path is “doomed to failure,” he says. But at the same time, “the more time passes, the harder it gets” for the nationalists to negotiate anything less than complete independence. One Socialist proposal, for example, is a referendum across Spain on moving to a federal system, which would give Catalonia more autonomy.

José Areilza, a law professor at ESADE, a business and law school in Barcelona, sees tension growing inside the independence camp between pragmatic parties like Convergencia, who have proved willing to negotiate in the past, and hardliners including some nationalist leftists who are seen as a threat by the Catalan business community, and even oppose EU membership.

“Since the end of the 1970s, we have had a long tradition of pro-independence parties in Catalonia who demanded a lot, but in the end were pragmatic and sat down with the Spanish government to negotiate a better deal for the region and reach more autonomy,” said Areilza.

“In the end, it was always the moderates who decided the outcome,” he said. “I’m not sure about this time.”
Diego Torres in Madrid contributed to this article.

Joan A. Forès
Reflexions



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